14.7.2023

How The SAG-AFTRA and Writers Strike will Affect the Distribution Market

How The SAG-AFTRA and Writers Strike will Affect the Distribution Market

Author

Jack Thomas

role

Director

This week marked the start of a new SAG-AFTRA strike, with the union joining the WGA for the first simultaneous strike since 1960. The effect was felt immediately for late-night entertainment TV and will impact the output of scripted content in the coming months as production on many titles is set to grind to a halt. But how will this affect the distribution landscape?

One key grievance of the WGA is the amount of work available to their writers. Despite an increase in the number of TV series, reliable long-tail projects like those of traditional network shows with 22+ episodes are less common as studios focus more on content for their SVOD services. These series are typically much shorter, and when writers are paid per-episode basis, their income is directly affected.

Source: 3Vision Show Tracker - First Season English Language Scripted Commissions on US Services - *As of April 2023

Even the new Free TV commissions that are being produced are averaging shorter seasons than just a few years ago, while Pay TV and SVOD commissions are now averaging between eight and nine episodes a season. US TV series however continue to average many more episodes than their UK counterparts.

While the strike’s initial impact will be seen in the US as services see their rate of new show premieres slow down, it will doubtless also force a big change from the distribution arms of studios looking to sell TV series internationally. Recent data following the COVID-19 pandemic shows how a halt in US production affects the buyer’s market overseas for US series.

Source: 3Vision Show Tracker - First Season, First Window Premieres of US Series, split by time to premiere following its US debut in in nine Show Tracker markets:(AUS, CAN, ESP, FRA, GER, ITA, SWE, SPA, UK)

Across major international markets, the first TV season following the outbreak of COVID-19 (2020/21 season) saw nearly half of all international premieres of US series occurring at least six months after their initial debut, showing how many international buyers were forced to acquire older, previously unsold US series to fill their schedules. While the cause is very different, a sustained halt in production caused by strike action can very likely provoke a similar response from international buyers in the upcoming 2023/24 season.

It also presents an opportunity for content creators outside of the US as the demand for English language series remains high. Buyers in international markets already struggle to acquire premium US series as many studios choose to instead vertically integrate their TV shows onto their own SVOD services. 

Distributors of UK content have been taking advantage of this existing situation, stepping in as willing sellers to local services. They may soon find themselves in an even stronger position than before, as the writers strike further reduces the flow of new US content into the international marketplace.

2023 has seen many US studios already begin to take a more measured and pragmatic approach to their original production, as opposed to the content arms race of the previous few years as they each began to launch their own SVOD services. Their renewed focus on profitability may make the negotiations to end the writers strike a challenge, but within this disruption, the opportunity is there for many distributors to gain renewed international interest from buyers in older titles in their catalogues.

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